Julia galef email12/31/2023 In other words, we have what Julia Galef calls a "soldier" mindset. When it comes to what we believe, humans see what they want to see. Members enjoy a steady stream of exclusive wisdom and insights from the leading minds in the field of investment management.Ĭhuck Akre | Sanjay Bakshi | Brian Bares | David Barr | Chris Bloomstran | John Burbank | Joel Cohen | Larry Cunningham | Aswath Damodaran | Christopher Davis | Charles de Vaulx | Fernando del Pino | Pat Dorsey | Jean-Marie Eveillard | James Ferguson | Frank Fischer | Tom Gayner | Daniel Gladiš | Bruce Greenwald | Robert Hagstrom | Connor Haley | Ahron Herring | Michael Huber | Bryan Lawrence | Hendrik Leber | Paul Lountzis | Peter Mantas | David Marcus | Howard Marks | Michael Mauboussin | Chris Mittleman | David Nierenberg | Phil Ordway | Mohnish Pabrai | Francisco García Paramés | Bob Robotti | François Rochon | David Rolfe | Jim Roumell | Chuck Royce | Tom Russo | Dave Sather | Florian Schuhbauer | Adam H.".an engaging and enlightening account from which we all can benefit."- The Wall Street JournalĪ better way to combat knee-jerk biases and make smarter decisions, from Julia Galef, the acclaimed expert on rational decision-making. Members also enjoy preferential access to selected offline events as well as exclusive access to other events hosted by MOI Global, including the Zurich Project Summit, the Latticework Conference, and Ideaweek. Members of MOI Global enjoy complimentary access to a growing array of resources and content related to the art of intelligent investing. We are now a thriving global community of intelligent investors, connected through great ideas, thought-provoking interviews, online conferences, live member events, and much more. Who is MOI Global? In recent years, The Manual of Ideas has expanded to become more than simply “the very best investing newsletter on the planet” (Mohnish Pabrai). Our sole purpose is to serve the members of MOI Global as well as we possibly can in order to help them learn, invest intelligently, and build lifelong friendships with like-minded people. The MOI Global Editorial Team, led by John Mihaljevic, CFA, includes community builders, event organizers, writers, editors, research associates, security analysts, and fanatical member support advocates. Her 2016 TED Talk “Why You Think You’re Right–Even If You’re Wrong” has been viewed over 4 million times.Ībout The Author: MOI Global Editorial Team She is an advisor to OpenAI, works with the Open Philanthropy Project, and cofounded the Center for Applied Rationality. Julia Galef is the host of the popular Rationally Speaking podcast, where she has interviewed thinkers such as Tyler Cowen, Sean Carroll, Phil Tetlock, and Neil deGrasse Tyson. With fascinating examples ranging from how to survive being stranded in the middle of the ocean, to how Jeff Bezos avoids overconfidence, to how superforecasters outperform CIA operatives, to Reddit threads and modern partisan politics, Galef explores why our brains deceive us and what we can do to change the way we think. It’s a handful of emotional skills, habits, and ways of looking at the world-which anyone can learn. In The Scout Mindset, Galef shows that what makes scouts better at getting things right isn’t that they’re smarter or more knowledgeable than everyone else. Regardless of what they hope to be the case, above all, the scout wants to know what’s actually true. It’s to go out, survey the territory, and come back with as accurate a map as possible. Unlike the soldier, a scout’s goal isn’t to defend one side over the other. From tribalism and wishful thinking, to rationalizing in our personal lives and everything in between, we are driven to defend the ideas we most want to believe-and shoot down those we don’t. But if we want to get things right more often, argues Galef, we should train ourselves to have a “scout” mindset. In other words, we have what Julia Galef calls a “soldier” mindset. A better way to combat knee-jerk biases and make smarter decisions, from Julia Galef, the acclaimed expert on rational decision-making.
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$200 000 mortgage payment 15 years12/31/2023 repayments and cost of a 500000 mortgage.repayments and cost of a 300000 mortgage.you could negotiate for and how much your rate will change each year. 14, 2022 Read time 7 min Find a mortgage that fits your life. Choose from 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed, and 5-year ARM loan scenarios in the. Estimate your monthly payment with our free mortgage calculator & apply today. How To Pay Off Your 30-Year Mortgage in 15 Years By MoneyTips Writer / Reviewed by Kris Lamey Updated Dec. repayments and cost of a 200000 mortgage. Your loan program can affect your interest rate and total monthly payments. To be approved for a 200,000 mortgage with a minimum down payment of 3.5 percent, you will need an approximate income of 62,000 annually.Input your loan term (total years on the loan). Select the estimated interest rate percentage. At 5 interest, your payment would be 1,582. How to calculate your loan cost Insert your desired loan amount. repayments and cost of a 50000 mortgage. With a 15-year mortgage, your monthly payment on a 200,000 mortgage at 3.5 jumps to 1,430.They can help you find the right product, whether it be a fixed rate, tracker or offset mortgages, to fit your exact circumstances. Whatever your reasons for needing a £200,000 mortgage, be sure to seek professional advice either from a mortgage broker or an independent financial adviser. See our mortgage calculator to calculate mortgage repayments for full information on your costs by year. You can also enter different interest rates and time and loan periods. Please see our mortgage calculator to see different rates, the total repayments you'll make over the life of the loan and the total interest paid. The value shown is the monthly repayment for each month of your £200,000 mortgage. You want to determine your 200,000 mortgage monthly payment at 5 interest and intend on repaying it over 30 years. You should not rely on these rates but get a professional financial quote for your £200,000 mortgage offer.Īll values are in pounds sterling for the years provided. Please note these rates are for illustrative purposes only. Example £200,000 MortgageĪn example Santander mortgage for a property valued at £333,400 and a loan-to-value of 80% with a £200,000 mortgage is as follows: These rates are applicable for new mortgages or remortgages and are on a repayment basis for a loan of £200,000 to repay in the number of years shown. Descargar winrar 6412/31/2023 It can be helpful when unpacking a non-solid archive containing files encrypted with different passwords. Name of unpacking file is now included into WinRAR incorrect password warning for RAR5 archives. When using "File/Change drive" command, WinRAR saves the last folder of previous drive and restores it if that drive is selected again later.ħ. Descargar Winrar 64 bits es la mejor opción, cuando se trata de manejar o manipular cantidades considerables de ficheros y de gran tamaño, como archivos de texto y también aquellos que son ejecutables, la limitación se deriva sólo del sistema operativo. Previous versions ignored -ri and set the priority to low in the presence of -ibck switch.Ħ. If -ibck -ri switches are used together, WinRAR process sets the priority specified in -ri switch. It can be useful if only the archive type or total information is needed.ĥ. Switch -idn hides archived names also in 'v' and 'l' commands. In the past this extended error information was available in WinRAR, but not in SFX archives.Ĥ. Now this message is followed by a detailed reason like access denied or file being used by another process. Where appropriate, SFX archive displays the additional line with detailed error information provided by operating system.įor example, previously such archive would display "Cannot create file" message alone. We would like to express our gratitude to Igor Sak-Sakovskiy for bringing this issue to our attention.ģ. In limiting the practical application of this attack. Such attack is only possible if the intruder has managed to spoof or otherwise control user's DNS records. This is done to prevent a malicious web page from executing existing files on a user's computer. Posee una interfaz grfica bastante estructurada en la que se incluyen varias opciones interesantes como la. WinRAR es una excelente aplicacin con soporte para compresin de archivos RAR yZIP y soporte de descompresion para CAB, ARJ, LZH, TAR, GZ, ACE, UUE, BZ2, JAR e ISO. winrar-x32-622.exe winrar-圆4-622.exe WinRAR Chinese Simplified. WinRAR v6.00 FINAL Espaol, Poderoso Compresor en Ficheros RAR, ZIP. It also implements additional checks within the web notifier. Additional links Download the latest version from the developers website. WinRAR uses https instead of http in the web notifier window, home page and themes links. We are thankful to Jacob Thompson - Mandiant Advantage Labs for reporting this issue.Ģ. We already prohibited extracting contents of such malformed archives in WinRAR 6.01. It is done to prevent possible attacks with inclusion of ZIP archive into the signature body. Permite crear, organizar y administrar los archivos de una manera cómoda y rápida. ZIP SFX module refuses to process SFX commands stored in archive comment if such comment is resided after beginning of Authenticode digital signature. WinRAR es una utilidad de compresión de datos avanzada soporta múltiples formatos, incluyendo RAR, ZIP, CAB, ARJ, LZH, ACE, TAR, GZip, UUE, ISO, BZIP2, Z y 7-Zip. Lights out 2 min trailer prequel12/31/2023 He confirms it formally in August 2013.ĭecember 2013: Avatar 2, Avatar 3, and Avatar 4 will shoot in New Zealand. I’m making Avatar 2, Avatar 3, maybe Avatar 4, and I’m not going to produce other people’s movies for them,” he tells the New York Times. Literally, he says this: “I’m not interested in developing anything. Now Cameron has an Avatar 4 in store too. May 7, 2012: Not just Avatar 2 and Avatar 3. Cameron is shooting for a December 2014 and December 2015 release. Fox made a big donation to his environmental green fund to make sure the trilogy rises to the tippity top of his to-do list. October 27, 2010: Avatar 2 and Avatar 3 are definitely happening ASAP - he passed on Sony’s never-realized Cleopatra to work on them. And I’m going to be focusing on the ocean on Pandora, which will be equally rich and diverse and crazy and imaginative, but it just won’t be a rain forest,” he tells the Los Angeles Times. “Part of my focus in the second film is in creating a different environment - a different setting within Pandora. (Later on, he’ll say the Oscars don’t award his kinds of movies anymore, meaning “big, visual cinema.”)Īpril 21, 2010: The Avatar sequel, Cameron says, will dive deep (not into the history - that’s for the novel) into the ocean. March 7, 2010, an aside: Cameron loses the Oscar. But really, he’s focused on the prequel novel: “I didn’t want to do some cheesy novelization,” he says, “where some hack comes in and makes shit up.” We can bank all the capture and then go back and do cameras,” he says. “We’re talking about that, that makes a lot of sense, given the nature of these productions. Your middle-school librarian nods in agreement.Īugust 7, 2010: Now Avatar 2 and Avatar 3 will be filmed back-to-back. There are things you can do in books that you can’t do with films,” Cameron says. “It just makes sense to think of it as a two or three film arc, in terms of the business plan.”įebruary 16, 2010: We’re not only getting several more trips to Pandora, but a book! “I told myself, if it made money, I’d write a book. “I’ve had a story line in mind from the start - there are even scenes in Avatar that I kept in because they lead to the sequel,” he tells EW. January 14, 2010: Now he says there won’t just be another - there will be several more. “Yes, there’ll be another,” he tells the crowd after a screening in Los Angeles. January 7, 2010: Days after Avatar made $1 billion, Cameron announces that we’re getting a sequel. Play station 5 restock12/31/2023 If you laughed it off in 2022, it might be a great time to revisit it now.Ĭrisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion - $40 Square Enix It’s a chaotic game about irs creators struggling to define what Final Fantasy even means anymore, a discussion that would set the stage for Final Fantasy XVI one year later. Like Final Fantasy VII Remake, it almost plays like a meta-commentary of Final Fantasy at large. Stranger of Paradise isn’t a joke, though it’s a solid action RPG with quite a bit of meaning behind its unintentional comedy. Stranger of Paradise: Final Fantasy Origin - $20 Square Enixįrom the moment it was first announced, Stranger of Paradise: Final Fantasy Origingained a reputation as a “meme game.” Fans cracked up at its absurd debut trailer, where its one-track-minded hero, Jack Garland, repeatedly explained that his goal is to kill chaos. Even if you don’t care for the RPG series, Theatrhythm is an extraordinary historical document for video game fans who want to study the medium’s evolution. What starts as a collection of simple bleeps evolves with each passing year until it reaches Final Fantasy VII Remake’s enormous orchestral score. As you play along to 35 years worth of music, you get to see just how far video game music has come in that time. That may not sound too exciting on paper, but what makes that work is Final Fantasy’s very long history. The rhythm game acts as a tribute to the franchise’s entire history, letting players tap along to the sounds of the series. I’m not being ironic when I say that Theatrhythm Final Bar Line is my favorite Final Fantasy game in three years. Theatrhythm Final Bar Line - $40 Square Enix Its combat system isn’t too far off from Final Fantasy XVI’s either, so if you liked that game and want a little more spectacle, it’s worth grabbing it at a discount this Prime Day. That’s largely thanks to its excellent open-world traversal, which has players fluidly dashing around environments using parkour magic - it almost feels like a Sonic the Hedgehog game at times. Those critiques were fair, but they also papered over the fact that Forspoken is a much better adventure than you’d think. The action-RPG quickly became a laughing stock on social media as players posted clips of its “cringe” dialogue, likening its tone to that of a Marvel movie. And, of course, it’s all presented in the series’ signature HD-2D style, bringing its vast world together with gorgeously detailed pixel art.įorspokengot a bad rap when it launched earlier this year. The sequel does a much better job of tying those eight tales together with even more party interaction, addressing one of the most common complaints fans had with the original Octopath Traveler. Like its predecessor, Octopath Traveler 2 puts players in control of eight disparate characters whose paths all intersect. Released earlier this year, Square Enix’s retro-inspired adventure isn’t just a nostalgic throwback to classic turn-based games, but the best pound-for-pound RPG of the year. Octopath Traveler 2 - $40 Square Enixĭid the action-focused Final Fantasy XVI leave you hungry for a more traditional RPG? Then you need to give Octopath Traveler 2a try. It’s an especially great “reading list” for players who have already finished Final Fantasy XVIand are just biding their time until Final Fantasy VII Rebirth now. If you’re looking to freshen up your backlog, here are six great deals we found while combing through today’s deals. Jose golden margarita12/31/2023 Jar lids and bottle caps may also contain BPA. For more information go to WARNING: Many food and beverage cans have linings containing bisphenol A, a chemical known to cause harm to the female reproductive system. Recommended Reading: What Is The Best Scottish Whiskey California Residents: Tap Here For Proposition 65 Warning WARNING: Drinking distilled spirits, beer, coolers, wine and other alcoholic beverages may increase cancer risk, and, during pregnancy, can cause birth defects. Scale confidently, backed by our infrastructure. Customers receive the same white-glove service, selection, & tradition whether visiting our landmark store in-person or from the comfort of a computer, tablet, or phone. Since 2009, we have made our extensive selection of fine wines, craft beers, and exceptional spirits available online. Welcome to Holiday Wine Cellar, where every day is a holiday! Our Escondido, California landmark store, located in North County San Diego, has been family-owned and operated since its conception in 1965 – specializing in import & domestic wines, craft beers, and spirits from around the world. Recommended Reading: What Is The Smoothest Tasting Vodka Welcome To Our New Website The combination may also be saved for an indefinite period of time within the freezer. You can merely pull the container from the freezer and make scrumptious margaritas every time the temper moves. The components of this margarita combine comprise alcohol, so theyre going to freeze within the type of slush. For more information, go to Can You Freeze Jose Cuervo Margarita Mix WARNING: Drinking Distilled Spirits, Beer, Coolers, Wine and Other Alcoholic Beverages May Increase Cancer Risk, and, During Pregnancy, Can Cause Birth Defects. Service Areas Include: AK, AZ, CA, CONN, FL, LA, NE, NM, OR, PENN, WA, WY, & D.C. Sunday: Closed Deliveries available with notice.Join Our Newsletterincludes New Products Upcoming Tastings And Sale Information As Well As Announcements For Our Wine Club In this instance, a splash of watermelon juice can be amazing, as can fresh lime juice. You can also add a splash of fresh fruit zest to brighten and bolden the taste. Instead of tequila, Cointreau or triple sec is often used to make margaritas, so feel free to substitute any of them for the other. Opened margarita combine will have to be refrigerated and assists in keeping high quality for a minimum of 6 8 weeks, perhaps for much longer. If it is a few weeks, or perhaps a month or two, previous its date, it could nonetheless be ok. Unopened margarita combine generally lasts between 12 and 18 months, regularly longer. Is unopened margarita combine secure to drink after the expiration date at the bottle? How Lengthy Does Jose Cuervo Margarita Mix Final Unopened Properly saved, unopened margarita combine will typically keep at excellent high quality for approximately 12 to 18 months when saved at room temperature, even supposing itll generally stay secure to drink after that. Jose Cuervo Ready to Drink Margarita Assorted Flavors Dumbbell high pull muscles worked12/31/2023 Here, we’re going to combine an explosive pull with a power press, using a loaded backpack. On the heels of the dynamic warm-up, we’ll keep things dynamic with some power training. Power-Up: High Pull Throw to Overhead Press Throw If you do this routine in the same workout as the chest one, of course, you don’t have to do the warm-up a second time your shoulders will be plenty warm by the time delts come around. You’ll finish off with 10 horizontal arm swings, crossing your arms in front of your body. Then, you’ll do 10 forward arm swings with bigger circles (about 2 feet in diameter), and 10 big reverse arm circles. You’ll do 10 small forward arm circles (about 1 foot in diameter), followed by another 10 in the opposite (reverse) direction. I highly recommend preceding the workout with a 10-15-minute general warm-up of riding a stationary cycle, walking or running, or calisthenics.Īfter that, the workout starts with the same dynamic warm-up I included for the chest, since both muscle groups (pecs and deltoids) involve the shoulder joint. That’s exactly what I’ve come up with in the below routine. Yet, with some simple objects you probably have in your house – such as water/soda bottles or a backpack – and proper science-based programming (my specialty), you can get an amazing delt workout. Other than that, there are few ways to target the deltoids. There’s the Pike Press, which mimics a shoulder press and is basically an inverted push-up, but this is a very difficult exercise for most people. With just your body weight, you’re very limited. Training shoulders at home can be a challenge, as your main shoulder moves are overhead presses, upright rows, and raises (lateral raises, rear delt raises, etc.). That being said, here's a shoulder-stimulating routine like you've never seen. Maybe your muscles are in need of a change of scenery, a change of stimulus. In fact, taking a break from gym workouts could actually spark some new results, possibly helping you break through training plateaus due to the novel exercises and techniques employed in my at-home workouts. These workouts, however, can be used any time you're unable to get to the gym (virus or no virus) and find yourself lacking training tools like dumbbells, barbells, and machines - but not lacking the motivation and desire to keep training hard and seeing gains in muscle size and strength. I started writing this series of articles in response to the coronavirus pandemic, with gyms closing all over the world and people forced to stay at home and make do. Now, it's time to train shoulders at home. In the first two installments of my At-Home Workout training series, I showed you how to get great leg and chest workouts using nothing but bodyweight and common items you can find around the house (a backpack, a chair or couch, etc.). Stechkin 9mm makarov12/31/2023 The mission of the APS was similar to that of today’s PDW (Personal Defense Weapon). Like the PM, the APS is chambered for the 9x18mm Makarov cartridge. The slide rails, extractor and take down procedure also owe a debt to the PM. After initial trials of the prototype APS machine pistol, it was redesigned to incorporate many features of the Makarov, including the silhouette, which makes it appear to be a PM on steroids. It was designed by Igor Yakovlevich Stechkin, an engineer at the Tula arsenal. Development of the APS took place at approximately the same time as the 9x18mm Makarov PM service pistol. There had actually been an experimental Soviet machine pistol designed by Fedor Vasilyevich Tokarev during the 1920s, but it had proven a dead end. The APS is fairly large double-action design which feeds from a 20-round detachable box magazine. I’ll discuss my reasons for preferring the APS later, but first let me give a bit of its history. I will grant, however, that the Russian Avtomatichekiy Pistolet Stechkina (APS or simply Stetchkin) is better than the other machine pistols I’ve used. I’ve had occasion to fire most of the machine pistols that have seen use during the 20 th and 21 st Century and have concluded that many are interesting, but few are especially effective. Even with the stock attached, most machine pistols are hard to control on full auto.Ĭonventional wisdom is that in most situations either a good combat handgun or a true submachine gun would be more effective. The pistol is larger than a typical combat autoloader, perhaps with a greater magazine capacity. The holster stock is usually designed to be more effective as a shoulder stock than as a holster, normally being longer than a typical holster and fabricated of polymer or, in cases such as the Mauser 712 “Schnellfeuer”, in wood. Generally, it has a holster that also functions as a stock. In appearance it resembles a large pistol, but one capable of full-auto fire, though sometimes only in 3-shot bursts. It isn’t really a handgun and it isn’t really a submachine gun. The machine pistol is a platypus among weapons. All deactivated weapons sold by D and B Militaria are deactivated in the United Kingdom and hold London or Birmingham proof marks and a certificate stating that the weapon has been deactivated correctly and is legal within the U.K.OctoBy Leroy Thompson, Machine Guns & Tactics Editor Like almost all Soviet design and manufactured weapons, they are simple to operate and extremely reliable. They fire the 9mm Makarov cartridge, have a 20 round magazine and can fire at 650 RPM at ranges out to 200 metres. This was one of the few weapons that were not allowed to be copied by other communist countries. They were all made at the famous Tula plant in Siberia and were made to very high standards. The Stechkin, or APS (Avtomaticheski Pistolyet Stechkina, or Автоматический Пистолет Стечкина, in Russian) first appeared in 1951 and were a military issue item until 1975, though they are used for covert role and special purposes to this day. Unlike earlier examples, the full auto mechanism remains intact and the selector goes to the auto position. Complete with the Rare Plastic Removable Holster Stock. Deactivated Old Spec Soviet Stechkin 9mm Machine Pistol in excellent condition. Pop up camper sun reflector12/30/2023 Plus, a cozy dinette, plenty of cabinet space, a fridge, and an indoor/outdoor two-burner stove. This model features two fold-out beds, one 42×78 and the other 54×78. The Flagstaff 176LTD is a smaller, lightweight version of the Flagstaff 208 above with a slightly different layout. Related: 10 Best Small Pop-up Campers Forest River Flagstaff Tent 176LTD Screenshot of the Forest River Flagstaff Tent 176LTD floorplan found on So, without further ado, here are ten pop-up campers under 2,000 lbs. So, you won’t find any old Jayco or Coleman pop-up campers on this list.
Laravel tutorial for beginners12/30/2023 As Laravel has features of creating unique URLs related to it, with the same existing routes we can create different routes with the same name. And it also includes few flexible features the applications.
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